A new federal report finds Australia is producing more medical graduates than ever, but failing to train enough specialists to meet community need.
Australia is on track to face a shortage of more than 12,800 full-time equivalent (FTE) GP and non-GP specialist doctors by 2048, with NSW, Victoria and Queensland set to bear the brunt of the shortages, according to a new federal government report.
Yet at the other end of the pipeline, almost 11,000 prevocational hospital doctors are projected to be in oversupply by 2048.
The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing’s recently released whole of medical workforce compendium report found all six states and both territories would experience an imbalance in the structure and composition of their medical workforce.
Victoria faced the steepest trajectory – a 10.1% specialist shortfall by 2033, representing a loss of more than 1,761 FTE specialists from 2025.
New South Wales was projected to reach a 6.1% shortage by 2033 despite already operating with a 3.2% deficit, and Queensland was on track to reach a 7% shortfall by the same year.
Western Australia was the only state projected to avoid a negative specialist supply between 2025 and 2048.
By 2048, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia were anticipated to face registrar shortfalls of between 30% and 40%.
The report also projected international medical graduates (IMGs) would account for 42% of total medical workforce growth between 2024 and 2048 – including more than half of all registrar growth – reflecting the continued heavy reliance on overseas-trained doctors to fill domestic pipeline gaps.
The projected oversupply of prevocational hospital doctors was expected to nearly double, from 15,900 FTE in 2025 to more than 38,000 by 2048.
The report warned this would create bottlenecks in the medical training pipeline, prolong training periods and increase job uncertainty among junior doctors, adversely affecting workforce retention.
Australian Medical Students Association president Seniru Mudannayake said the findings confirmed what students long feared.
“This report is finally bringing to light the issues that we’ve long expected,” Mr Mudannayake said.
“But that doesn’t change the hammer blow that this is for the aspirations and the hopes, and frankly, the mental health of medical students across the country,” he said.
While the report predicted exit rates would remain stable at 5.5%, Mr Mudannayake warned that figure would rise if junior doctors were left waiting years for a training program.
“Taxpayers will spend hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dollars across the career of these doctors to train them,” he said.
He told Oncology Republic it was an “incredible shame” that there would be insufficient placements to help junior doctors take the final steps towards becoming fully fledged consultant specialists who could serve their communities.
AMA Vice President professor Julian Rait told OR the findings indicated a systemic failure to invest downstream.
“A failure to plan is seeing more and more students enter the workforce, and we’re not seeing the necessary investment in downstream training places,” he said.
Professor Rait said the specialised shortfall would have a direct flow-on impact for general practice.
“We may find GPs burdened with much more complex cases than they otherwise would usually have to manage,” he said.
While the AMA welcomed IMG contributions in its own response to the report, Professor Rait cautioned against complacency.
“We don’t want to see a situation where they are exploited,” he said, or where a more sustainable domestic training pathway remains undeveloped.
