Gynaecological cancers projected to rise significantly, disproportionately affecting Māori and Pacific women and adding pressure the health system isn’t ready for.
Gynaecological cancer cases in Aotearoa New Zealand have been projected to rise by 82% by 2045 according to new modelling, driven primarily by uterine cancer, which are expected to more than double from 717 to 1506 cases annually.
Cervical and ovarian cancers are expected to show only about a 5% increase in case numbers and a decline in age-standardised incidence rates. Other gynaecological cancers were predicted to rise by 184% to around 460 cases.
The research highlighted the disproportionate burden on Māori and Pacific women, who already experience higher cancer incidence and poorer survival rates. Gynaecological cancers were predicted to rise by 132% among Māori women by 2045, and 137% for Pacific women.
Despite the age-standardised incidence rate decline in cervical cancer, the modelling suggested that NZ was unlikely to reach the World Health Organization cervical cancer elimination goals.
The research, published in the New Zealand Medical Journal, analysed national cancer registry data from 2001 to 2022 and used age-period-cohort modelling to forecast future trends. They estimated annual cases of gynaecological cancer will increase from around 1375 in 2020–2022 to approximately 2497 by 2045. The age-standardised incidence rate was projected to climb from 36.6 to 44.2 per 100,000 by 2045.
Researchers said the increase will be driven by several factors, including a growing and ageing population, changing population demographics and most significantly, modifiable risk factors.
Excess body weight and diabetes (both strongly linked to uterine cancer) were key contributors in the modelling – conditions which disproportionately affect Māori and Pacific communities.
“Diabetes prevalence is also increasing (~7% annually) and is three times higher in Māori and Pacific peoples, conferring a two- to three-fold increased risk independent of body weight,” the authors wrote.
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Encouragingly, they estimated that up to half of these cancers could be prevented through measures such as reducing obesity, improving diabetes management, increasing HPV vaccination uptake and boosting screening participation.
They proposed a “spectrum of action” approach, including raising awareness of symptoms such as abnormal bleeding, achieving high HPV vaccination coverage in adolescents, improving screening rates and ensuring timely access to treatment. Self-testing for cervical screening has already shown promise in improving participation among underserved groups, they noted.
“From a service-planning perspective, the rising number of gynaecological cancers will increase demand across specialist assessment, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up care,” they wrote.
“Work force planning will be needed across clinical and diagnostic services, with actions to recruit, retain and upskill staff and to enable care closer to home.
“Equity must be built in from the outset, including culturally anchored navigation and outreach for Māori and Pacific peoples and active monitoring of access and waiting times.”
In Australia, Cancer Australia estimated there were 7047 new gynaecological cancer cases in 2025, up from 5905 in 2021. These cancers were responsible for approximately 2300 deaths in 2025, accounting for nearly one in ten female cancer deaths. Around 24,000 women in Australia who were diagnosed in the previous five years were living with gynaecological cancers at the end of 2021.
